Atlanta Falcons
Studs: Matt Ryan, QB, Julio Jones, WR
Injuries to the weapons around him along with terrible line play was the main reason Ryan had a down year. The good news is that he still threw for over 4500 yards and gets his best offensive weapon in Julio Jones back. In the four full games that Jones played last year, Ryan had three of his best fantasy performances all year. The loss of Tony Gonzalez certainly hurts, but while Jones was out last year, Harry Douglas proved to be a capable WR opposite Roddy White, and should continue to be effective as the third WR this year. Ryan won't give you huge, monster numbers on a regular basis, but won't give you many duds either. With practically no injury history, Ryan is a safe, consistent pick.
Julio's injury history is what might cause him to drop in drafts, but his pure athleticism is what might cause him to be reached for in drafts. He's only played one full season in three years and had to have a specially made cleat for him this offseason to try and help him with his foot pains. When he's on the field, however, he's easily one of the top five WRs in the NFL. He's fast, strong, tall, and plays in an offense where they like to throw the ball. Where and if you take him all depends on how you feel about his health. If he does play a full 16 games, you can pretty much guarantee a top eight, maybe top five season.
Bust: Steven Jackson, RB
I'll admit, I thought Jackson was going to come in and light it up for the Falcons. After putting up respectable fantasy numbers in St. Louis, it only made sense that he would put up elite numbers in an offense that made Michael Turner a highly sought after fantasy player. Instead, injury and overall ineptitude of Atlanta's offense caused him to put up his worst yardage and yards per carry average of his career. To his credit, he did have a couple nice games late in the year, but I doubt that carries over into this year. He's 31 and is no longer a three down workhorse like he was in St. Louis. Joique Bell, Shane Vereen, and Bishop Sankey are all going after him, and are all players I would rather have.
Sleeper: Roddy White, WR
Not too long ago, White was a no brainer WR1 in fantasy. While I don't think he reaches that level again, I do think he can be very helpful to a lot of owners this year. His rocky start last year was probably due to him not being at full health, but he cranked out some nice games once he was 100% (Week 13 & 16). When both are healthy, White is now technically behind Jones but given how much this team likes to pass and how awful their defense is, White should still get a good amount of looks. I could see him dropping in a good number of drafts since he's kind of been forgotten in the Julio Jones hype the past couple years. Take him if you get the chance.
Bottom Line
There will be plenty of shootouts this year when the Falcons are playing. Half of their games are in the comfort of the Georgia Dome and their defense is not so good. Mike Smith and the Falcons have no problem getting into shootouts with teams, which is great news for the options involved in the aerial attack for this team.
Carolina Panthers
Studs: Cam Newton, QB
Newton does not come worry free in 2014. He had offseason ankle surgery, has an average at best line, and has a completely new receiving corps. His passing yards have dropped since his rookie year as he wound up with 3,379 last year. While it's too harsh to expect him to finish under 3,000, he's certainly not going to even sniff Rodgers or Brees numbers. Thankfully for Cam, his rushing yards and TDs save his fantasy value. He still has TE Greg Olsen and rookie Kelvin Benjamin is one of the top three WRs from this year's draft. Despite all the changes, he'll still finish as a top eight fantasy QB.
Bust: Carolina RBs
I'm pretty sure this will be Carolina's bust selection until they break that backfield up. As it stands, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Tolbert are all on the roster and all have different roles for the team. Williams is the one most likely to break a long one, Stewart is the oft injured one who frustrates everyone when he goes in the game, and Tolbert is the one most likely to get the short TDs. Any one game, all three could cancel out each other's production, or one will go off while the other two do absolutely nothing. If you do wind up with one of these backs, prepare for a season full of headaches as you try to figure out when to start any one of them.
Sleeper: Greg Olsen, TE
Olsen may not have the hype of a Jordan Cameron, he may not have the athleticism of a Vernon Davis, but Olsen is a consistently solid TE who should match or better his past performances in 2014. After years of being, in my opinion, underutilized in Chicago, Olsen has been a great fit in Carolina the past three seasons with back to back seasons of triple digit targets. While some may think the absence of Steve Smith will put more defensive focus on Olsen, I don't think it will be too big of a deal given his size, hands, and route running. What the Smith departure will certainly do is give Olsen more targets. He's not a burner and, unfortunately, the Panthers love to run it in the red zone despite Olsen's size, but he'll still put up great numbers. He's going seventh right now, but I would predict that in a PPR league, he'll finish top four, maybe even top three pending Gronk and Julius Thomas' health.
Bottom Line
On offense, Carolina has got to rebuild. Once they are able to get rid of Williams and Stewart, then they can really start putting some good, young players around Cam. For 2014, however, it might be a bit of a grind. Their defense is still one of the best in the league and should win a fair share of games for them this year.
New Orleans Saints
Studs: Drew Brees, QB, Jimmy Graham, TE, Marques Colston, WR
Since arriving in New Orleans, Brees has been a blessing to both the Saints organization and fantasy football owners. Now entering his ninth season as a Saint, Brees will look to put up his fourth 5,000 yard season in a row this year. There's really not much to say about him, other than he's a lock to finish right behind Peyton Manning for fantasy points this year (sorry, Rodgers fans). The weapons are all around him with one of the most creative offensive play callers in the league. Trust in Breesus.
Graham is the most dangerous of all Brees' weapons. While there was a debate this offseason about whether or not he was a WR or TE, there is no debate that he is the number one fantasy TE, and is worthy of a first or second round pick (in PPR, he's a first round lock). He might present the most dangerous matchup problem in all the NFL and is moved and used in multiple formations. Brees can literally just throw it up for Graham in a crowd of corners and safeties, and there's a 90% chance that Graham will come away with the football. He's just as safe a Brees is.
Colston was looking like he lost a step early last year, but rebounded down the stretch. Colston showed up just in time for the fantasy playoffs, catching 22 passes for 280 yards and three TDs. He was nagged by injuries early on, so I expect him to carry over his end of the year performance into 2014. Prior to last year, he had put up four straight 1,000 yard seasons with no less than 106 targets during that time. He has always been they guy that won't get you any, "Good pick," remarks from your friends, but will still be a solid part of your fantasy thing. Upside is low, but his floor is high. Taking the number one WR in this offense shouldn't be too difficult.
Bust: Saints RBs
Similar to the Panthers, there are three backs that will likely get legitimate playing time in different roles. Pierre Thomas is the most likely to do well, and will probably be the main target on passing downs. Mark Ingram is the between the tackles, bowling ball back. Khiry Robinson has been hyped as the best out of all of them, but it seems as though the staff are bringing him along slowly. Just like in Carolina, I think they eat into each other's value, making each one of them a gamble to start each week. Thomas probably has the best chance to stand out given his pass catching ability and experience, but a rotation of backs is highly likely in the Big Easy.
Sleeper: Defense/Special Teams
Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills also fit the bill here, but let's check out this Saints defensive unit. After being fired by the Dallas Cowboys, Rob Ryan has completely transformed this Saints defense into a highly aggressive unit. They finished 11th in fantasy points last year and I'm predicting a top five finish by this unit this year. With the acquisition of Jairus Byrd, the Saints might just have the best safety duo in the league with Kenny Vaccaro on the other side. They're still going to give up yardage and points, but that's only part of what makes a good fantasy defense. Their ability to get turnovers will be big and Ryan will be preaching that over and over again. The noise of the Superdome is a significant advantage for this unit, and I expect to see a couple 20 pointers put up in New Orleans. Great bargain considering they're going 12th in drafts.
Bottom Line
The Saints should once again be playoff bound and possible Super Bowl contenders. The loss of Darren Sproles will not go unnoticed, but I think they've done enough to allow this offense to still flourish. They put up mind boggling stats whenever they're in the Dome, no matter who they play, which is just an added boost for this team. Be excited about any Saint you draft.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Studs: Vincent Jackson, WR
While V-Jax might have been more well known when Phillip Rivers was throwing him the ball in San Diego, he's actually found more success in the two years he's been in Tampa. He's gotten at least 147 targets and put up his two highest receiving totals of his career. The problem with Jackson, and what keeps him from being in the elite discussion, is that he has been inconsistent during his time with the Bucs. He had four games of 114+ yards, but also had five of 35 or less. He'll once again have a new QB throwing to him in Josh McCown and will have rookie Mike Evans opposite him, hopefully drawing away more coverage than targets. If you can deal with the peaks and valleys, Jackson is a solid WR2, borderline WR1.
Bust: Doug Martin, RB
While I warned against drafting him last year, I didn't think the reason he would fail would be because of injury. Alas, in Week 7 Martin suffered a season ending injury after being taken in the first round of a lot of fantasy drafts. What people forget is how, similar to Jackson, madly inconsistent Martin has been. His rookie year numbers were nice, but most of the damage and hype came from a four TD performance against the Raiders. In the five full games he played last year, Martin was given the workload but didn't deliver. He had 20+ carries in the first four games but only managed one TD and went over 100 yards one time. While he was injured, Bobby Rainey and Mike James flashed their own playmaking abilities. Even if he were guaranteed all the carries for the Bucs, I'm still not sure he would produce RB1 numbers. With Rainey and James lurking, I think Martin owners could be in for a disappointing year.
Sleeper: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE
ASJ probably won't get drafted, but he's definitely someone to keep an eye on, particularly if you have an injury prone player like Gronk as your starting TE. ASJ is 6'5", 262 lbs. and will probably be best utilized in the red zone. The Bucs seem to be trying to duplicate the size that McCown had to throw to last year, and Martellus Bennett wound up finishing 12th in fantasy points. I'm not saying ASJ finishes that high, but I'm willing to bet he makes a better than normal bye week fill in TE, and maybe even has a couple two or three TD games this year. His size should present problems for defenses, though the elite numbers might be a few years away.
Bottom Line
From the coaching staff to the QB, there's a lot of new faces in Tampa this year. Hopefully for fantasy owners, Lovie Smith doesn't hold back the explosive potential that this offense has. He will bring improved numbers to this defense though, as this unit has sleeper top five potential. They might start off slow with all the new pieces in place, but they should start clicking after the first few weeks.
Matty O
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