Fantasy Draft Strategy

Ah, the start of a new fantasy football season.  A fresh start for those who finished last in 2013, and the hope of a repeat title for the Champions of last year.  A successful draft is the best way to turn those hopes into reality.  Sure, you can make a big time waiver wire pickup this year, and you can also fumble away wins by starting and sitting the wrong people.  For the most part, however, the draft is critical to determining the playoff teams and the ones that are done by Week 8.  Here now are some tips that I've used in the past in order to have the most successful draft possible.

Know Your League Rules
Is your league a standard one?  Point per reception (PPR)?  Can you draft individual defensive players?  Depending on what your league type is, will influence how you draft and the importance placed on certain players.  For instance, in PPR, Darren Sproles becomes a hot commodity.  When he was on the Saints, it wasn't out of the question to take him in the first three rounds.  His best year was in 2011, when he caught 86 passes and had 1,313 total yards.  In a standard league, where 10 rushing or receiving yards is worth one point, that would mean that other backs would have to gain 860 more total yards just to match Sproles' receptions.  Conversely, you think about a guy like Alfred Morris who hardly ever catches the ball (20 receptions in 32 NFL games), but puts up good rushing and TD totals.  Remember, that no matter what the league, it's all about drafting for value.  Morris at number 12 overall is good value in a standard league, but not so good when it comes to PPR.

You're Creating A Team, Not Picking A Player
I brought this up last year, and I'll say it again, because it is tempting to not follow this principle. I've always believed that your picks in the 6th and 7th round are just as important as your pick in the first.  You can, and should, expect your first round pick to be the star of your team, but if you reach for a player too early, then you might have slim pickings in the later rounds, whereas your opponents can find solid production.  I'll get deeper into this in the following sections, but taking a player, no matter how good he is, at a deep position, is a risk.  If all your draft picks pan out and you pick every good sleeper there is out there, then you might be able to get away with it.  The chances of that happening though, are slim.

The Bronco Rule
Normally, if I have a team's QB, I'm not drafting the team's RB.  I sometimes even shy away from the QB-WR same team combo.  This rule goes out the window when it comes to this year's, and last year's Broncos.  If you rolled out a lineup of Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Wes Welker, Montee Ball, Julius Thomas, Matt Prater, and the Broncos Defense (have to choose a non-Bronco for RB2), I bet you beat most teams, most weeks.  Manning does such a great job putting guys in position to be successful, that all of the Bronco skill players should see some success this year.  Even if Welker has a down game, it is likely that everyone else went off and your opponent likely had someone not do so hot as well.  The obvious drawback of this is there will be one week (Denver's bye) where you essentially forfeit that matchup, but all other weeks, you'll have the full force of the Bronco offense coming at your opponent.

Handcuff
Handcuffing in fantasy football refers to backing up your starting running back in case he gets injured.  It takes up a roster spot and you might go through the whole year without using him, but if you don't have that handcuff, your season could be over.  Let's take the always entertaining health risk that is Reggie Bush as an example.  Reggie Bush getting injured during the season is probably the safest bet in football.  When he's out there, he's one of the most dangerous backs in the league, but sooner or later he will get injured.  If you don't have his backup and aren't first in waiver priority, then chances are you just wasted one of your top picks.  You might be lucky having found a diamond in the rough off the waiver wire, but having Bush's backup is the only way to guarantee that you will have a starting RB to fill that slot if/when Bush goes down.

Now, keep in mind this shouldn't apply to everyone.  If you have an Alfred Morris, who never gets hurt, then it's probably better to keep that roster spot open for someone with high potential.  Anyone who has played fantasy before knows how precious those roster spots are, especially once bye weeks roll around.  Also, it's worth questioning if the running game is good because of the RB, or is the RB good because of the running scheme and personnel up front.  Ben Tate was probably the most sought after handcuff because he was on the Texans.  If Arian Foster went down, Tate would and did still have success because that offensive line was so good and they were committed to running the ball.  Contrast that to Zac Stacy in St. Louis where the offense was putrid running the ball until Stacy took over full time.  It's not a necessity, but handcuffs sure will make you breathe easier when you see your starting RB hit with the Questionable or Doubtful tag.

Draft Date
Obviously getting 10 or 12 people to have all their schedules match up to have a draft is a difficult thing, but I like having drafts as close to the start of the season as possible.  Even if it works in my favor, I feel like the league gets ruined a bit if a draft takes place in the middle of August, only to have someone's first round RB get injured in a meaningless preseason game.  Having your draft close to the start of the season, minimizes those chances and will likely give you a better idea of any lingering suspensions and/or holdouts.  We still don't know what will happen with Josh Gordon.  Seeing as how he's one of the top receivers in the league, the length of his suspension could mean the difference between taking him early or not taking him at all.  Just something for all the commissioners out there to keep in mind.

Position by Position Strategy
Quarterback
Similar to last year, QB is crazy deep, probably even more so than last year.  Consider the fact that, in a standard 12 team league, Tony Romo, Phillip Rivers, and Andy Dalton likely won't be a starter for a team, despite finishing in the Top 10 for QBs last year.  I suggested this last year and I think it applies again, but you could wait a while on QB, draft two of them late, and just play the matchups.  You could easily wind up with a Phillip Rivers/Ben Roethlisberger, or a Jay Cutler/Andy Dalton combo.  Depending on the matchup, any one of those four has the ability to go off for a big game.  Heck, I even think Carson Palmer will have a good year and will be worthy of a start once in a while.  Save for a disastrous game in Seattle, he did really well down the stretch.  Eli Manning should bounce back, and it's not hard to see either one of the rookies or second year QBs emerging.

At the top of the QB mountain sits three players and three players only; Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers.  These are the only three that I would even consider taking early.  For those that think Manning is a sure fire way to make the title game, consider where he was drafted last year compared to this.  You could get Manning late second, maybe even early third last year.  This year, he is likely to cost you a first round or early second round pick.  I still think he'll do well, don't get me wrong, but last year you could have gotten Jamaal Charles and Manning.  This year, you'll probably wind up with Manning and someone like Le'Veon Bell.  Wait on QB unless Manning, Brees, or Rodgers falls.

Player(s) Outside Top 10 That Will Finish Top 10:  Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton

Running Back
What a terrible year for first round running backs.  Injuries (Arian Foster, Doug Martin) and down years (Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson) sent many fantasy teams into a downward spiral they couldn't recover from.  As I said before, you expect your first round pick to carry the load, so if they underperform, unless you have the greatest bench in history, you'll probably be on the outside looking in come playoff time.  The good news is that I think last year was simply an outlier for how many first round backs did poorly.  The bad news is, I think the amount of reliable backs is decreasing league wide.  The NFL is becoming a more pass oriented league.  Owners and GMs are trying to preserve their backs long term, so the running back by committee (RBBC) is becoming more and more popular.

The only places that don't have a RBBC approach are Dallas, Washington, Philly, Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle, Houston, and Kansas City.  Everywhere else, teams are either using the RBBC or are in the midst of heading that direction.  It's a good strategy for NFL teams, but a pain in the butt for fantasy football players.  I tried to juggle the three headed monster that was the New England Patriots backfield last year with little to no success.  Even if you draft both backs in a committee, good luck starting the right one that goes off that week.

This year, I really think there are only five backs in the entire league that can be trusted and have minimal question marks surrounding them.  Those are Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, and Eddie Lacy.  If you have a chance to take any of them, do it.  I don't care who else is available to take.  A single runner entrusted to carry the mail for an entire team is such a rare commodity that you would be foolish to pass them up.  You should have a distinct advantage at the RB1 position week in and week out.

Player(s) Outside Top 20 That Will Finish Top 20:  Ray Rice, Bishop Sankey, Khiry Robinson

Wide Receiver
Unlike the running backs, there seems to be an abundance of great WRs in the game today.  More and more teams are seeing the value of lining up two great receivers together so the defense can't just focus on one guy.  Chicago, Atlanta, Arizona, Denver, and Washington are probably the front runners for best WR duo in the league.  With all this talent, similar to QB, it is wise to wait a bit on WRs, though not as long as on QB.  Just like at the other positions, there are a few that are a cut above the rest.  Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones are the six I would include in that elite category (Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffery, and Antonio Brown are close behind).  In a 12 team PPR league, some of these guys even become first rounders.  I wouldn't hesitate to pick any of them.

If you don't wind up with one of them, you can take comfort in the fact that there's plenty of talent to be had later in the draft.  While there may be less sure things later on, there are a whole bunch of guys that could have breakout years.  Cordarrelle Patterson came on late last year and will be better with a year under his belt, Emmanuel Sanders is an upgrade over Eric Decker with Denver's explosive offense, Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin have to help make up for the production lost when Desean Jackson left, Tavon Austin lacked consistency but was always dangerous last year, Markus Wheaton could fill Sanders' role in Pittsburgh, someone has to catch for Tom Brady other than Rob Gronkowski, and there's also a handful of promising rookies.

One thing to consider as well is if your league has a FLEX position.  Some leagues have this spot in lieu of a third WR spot.  The FLEX can usually be filled with a WR or RB, though some leagues now include a TE in that mix.  If your league has three WR slots, then value them more.  RBs, in general, are much safer with a lower ceiling than WRs.  This makes them great candidates for the FLEX spot as your big games should come from your top starters anyways.  If you have three WRs, however, there will be less of them available in the later rounds so it's better to get one sooner rather than later.

Player(s) Outside Top 30 That Will Finish Top 30:  Riley Cooper, Terrance Williams, Emmanuel Sanders

Tight End
Lately, this position has really been Jimmy Graham, Gronk (when healthy), and everyone else.  That doesn't change this year.  If you can't get either one of them, or don't want either of them, then try to be the last one in your league to snag a TE.  Last year, the difference between Graham (#1) and Vernon Davis (#2) was 56 points.  The difference between Davis and Martellus Bennett (#10), however, was 58 points.  Averaged out over 16 games, that is only an additional 3.6 points per game.  Compare that to RB where the 2 to 10 difference would net you 5.6 points per game.  Graham and a healthy Gronk will outscore the other tight ends badly, that's not even in question, but the difference between the rest of them won't be that great.  Just remember, if you ain't first, you better be last.

Player(s) Outside Top 10 That Will Finish Top 10:  Ladarius Green, Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Defense
The best thing to keep in mind with defenses is that fantasy defense is wildly unpredictable.  In most leagues, points allowed isn't what will get you big fantasy defensive numbers.  Turnovers and sacks are the recipe for success.  The problem is that predicting those things is pretty difficult.  Sacks might be a bit easier to predict but I doubt anyone can give a concrete number for how many defensive TDs any given defense will score this year and back it up with facts.  The Chiefs finished first in defense last year, thanks in large part to 11 total defense/special teams TDs.  This is the same Chiefs defense that was projected to go undrafted and be one of the worst defenses to use.  Teams like the Seahawks and 49ers might seem like sure things, but the variance from year to year suggests it is better to simply wait and build up your other positions first.

Player(s) Outside Top 10 That Will Finish Top 10:  Green Bay Packers, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars

Kickers
Wait until the last round and pick one on a good team.  Having one that plays home games indoors (Colts, Lions, Cowboys, Falcons, Saints, Rams, Cardinals, Texans) can also be a plus.

Division by Division series coming in the following weeks.

Matty O