Chicago Bears
Studs: Matt Forte, RB, Alshon Jeffery, WR
Forte had a rather modest year in terms of rushing yards (1,038) and rushing TDs (6), but was an absolute monster in the receiving game. He was one of only five players to catch over 100 balls last year, with the other four being WRs. While ex-head coach Mark Trestman had something to do with that, I still think new head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase get Forte the ball in the passing game. 100+ catches is doubtful, but 60-70+ is a virtual lock so long as Forte stays healthy. Forte is getting up there in age and doesn't possess quite the same burst as he used to, but he's still the unquestioned number one back in Chicago and is in line for goal line rushing attempts. He's still a RB1, particularly in PPR.
Everything went Jeffery's way this offseason to set him up for a huge fantasy season. Jay Cutler's BFF Brandon Marshall got traded to the Jets, leaving Jeffery as the top target in Chicago. Cutler peppered Marshall with targets, whether they were good throws or not, and should do the same with Jeffery. New offensive coordinator Adam Gase coming over from Denver is also great news. In two seasons with the Broncos, Gase allowed Demaryius Thomas, a WR of similar build and skill to Jeffery, to rack up at least 92 catches, 1400 yards, and 11 receiving TDs in each year Gase was the offensive coordinator. Jeffery is their best deep ball and red zone threat and should make a push to top his 10 TDs from last year. In PPR leagues, I could see Jeffery finishing in the top three WRs.
Bust: Kevin White, WR
I didn't understand the hype surrounding this guy during the draft, and he has done nothing to help his stock since then. White was touted as an athletic freak, but only put up great numbers at West Virginia for one season. Since being drafted to the Bears, all he has done is dealt with shin splints and has been limited to light running on the side during training camp. Jeffery is clearly the number one WR, Eddie Royal is in the slot, and if White isn't careful, Marquess Wilson could pass him as the WR playing opposite Jeffery on the outside. White will need to get healthy and impress in practice and preseason games before he's guaranteed any kind of significant targets.
Sleeper: Eddie Royal, WR
Speaking of targets, I wouldn't be surprised if Royal gets plenty of them. The past couple years, the Bears have tried to attack teams with big, tall pass catchers like Marshall, Jeffery, and Martellus Bennett, but Royal brings that slot presence that can be so disruptive in today's NFL. Royal quietly had a good year in 2014 in San Diego, finishing with more fantasy points than big names like Vincent Jackson and Andre Johnson. Culter and Royal were teammates in Denver in 2008, when Royal had his most successful year as a WR, finishing with 91 receptions and 980 yards. If they can find that chemistry again, I expect Royal to be a fantasy asset, particularly in PPR leagues. Having a slot guy like Royal will be a great way to cut down on Cutler's interception total, while moving the chains.
Bottom Line
There were a lot of changes in the Windy City this offseason, most of which should help this franchise move in a positive direction. Cutler can be a useful fantasy QB when he is not throwing interceptions, and Bennett could be an elite TE if he could score more TDs. I also want to say a quick thing or two about rookie RB Jeremy Langford. He was one of my favorite RBs coming out this year, and I thought the Bears stole him in the 4th round. He won't get any significant touches unless Forte goes down, but stranger things have happened. He might even emerge as the Bears' goal line back during the season, as Langford racked up 40 rushing TDs in his last two seasons at Michigan State.
Detroit Lions
Studs: Calvin Johnson, WR, Golden Tate, WR
What a frustrating/rewarding season 2014 was for Johnson owners. Megatron started the year in classic Megatron form, roasting the Giants defense for 164 yards and 2 TDs. Then came three sub-100 yard, zero TD games, until he finally got injured in Week 5 and didn't return until after the Lions' Week 9 bye. Owners who were patient with him, were rewarded in a big way down the stretch. Games against Patrick Peterson, Darrelle Revis, and the Vikings didn't go according to plan, but huge performances against Tampa Bay and Chicago (twice) probably helped some owners make, and possibly win, their playoffs. Health is a very real concern for Johnson, as he hasn't played a full 16 games since 2012, but he's still one of the best WRs in the game when he plays. Other WRs like Odell Beckham Jr and Julio Jones are getting more hype than Johnson, so Megatron might even become a value pick if he falls in your draft.
After years of languishing in Seattle, Tate finally got his chance to realize his full WR potential since being drafted in the second round out of Notre Dame in 2010. Fortune favored Tate as he took advantage of Johnson's injury struggles and dominated the Lions' passing game while Johnson was out. From Weeks 4-10, Tate went over 100 yards in five of six games, while scoring three TDs. His numbers took a dip when Johnson returned which has some people worried, but not me. While the yards may have gone down, his receptions and targets were still piling up. Matthew Stafford has thrown 602+ passes in each of the past four seasons, and I don't see the Lions changing that in 2015. The only competition behind Tate is Lance Moore, Greg Salas, and Jeremy Ross. The TDs might not be there, but the receptions and yards after catch should continue for Tate.
Bust: Joique Bell, RB
Last year, Reggie Bush was my bust and Bell was my sleeper, so maybe this will just be a cycle for Lions' RBs from now on. Bell turned out to be a good sleeper pick last season, but 2015 is looking like a different story. In 2014, Bell was force fed the ball, particularly when Reggie Bush predictably struggled with injuries. Bell grounded and pounded his way to a 3.9 yards per carry average, just slightly above the likes of Bishop Sankey and Steven Jackson. Bell has also struggled with injuries this offseason, allowing newcomer Ameer Abdullah to start climbing up the depth chart, as well as fantasy draft boards.
Sleeper: Ameer Abdullah, RB
Abdullah was a star at Nebraska, going over 1,000 yards, scoring at least eight TDs, and catching at least 22 balls in each of the past three seasons. While he may not possess the imposing size (5'9" 205 lbs.) of a lot of NFL RBs, keep in mind that he got 264+ carries in each of his last two seasons at Nebraska. He's not going to barrel anyone over, but he is lightning quick, which allows him to avoid the crunching hits that would wear down a smaller back like him. Even if Bell comes back healthy, I could see Abdullah getting plenty of touches in the passing game and even a fair amount between the 20s (Bell would probably see most of the red zone work). The hype train for Abdullah might be moving a bit too fast, but I believe the excitement is warranted. I would draft Abdullah ahead of Bell and I believe Abdullah finishes the year with more fantasy points, even if both stay healthy.
Bottom Line
Detroit continues to be that team that gets so close, yet can't quite put it all together. I dropped Stafford from my Stud category this year, as his inconsistency has continued, although his high number of pass attempts makes him tempting from a fantasy perspective. Second year TE Eric Ebron will be asked to take a step forward, but I doubt that happens as Tate and Johnson get most of the targets. The loss of Ndamukong Suh dominated the headlines in the offseason, but expect this defense to stay in the top 10 as Haloti Ngata was added to returning Lions DeAndre Levy and Stephen Tulloch.
Green Bay Packers
Studs: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Eddie Lacy, RB, Jordy Nelson, WR, Randall Cobb, WR
What more is there to say about Rodgers? He throws for massive yards, throws for bunches of TDs, rarely throws a pick, and finished seventh among QBs in rushing yards last year. Rodgers and Andrew Luck are the clear cut top two QBs. It would not be a surprise if Rodgers finishes as the fantasy MVP.
While Rodgers is busy throwing the ball all over the field, Lacy is busy running against soft boxes because defenses don't want to get burned by the pass. Lacy has little competition to take away his touches, gets all the goal line rushes, and has surprisingly good hands for his size as he finished 13th among RBs in receptions last season. Lacy got double digit carries in every single game last season, and should see a similar workload this year. While his upside may be capped due to the amount of TDs Rodgers throws for, Lacy is arguably the safest RB in the first round.
While Lacy is one of the safer RBs to take, Nelson is one of the safer WRs. Nelson and Rodgers have uncanny chemistry, resulting in back to back 126+ target seasons for Nelson. Nelson had a spectacular 2014, finishing with five 9+ reception games and seven 100+ yard games. Even with Randall Cobb there and Davante Adams getting some more looks, Nelson remains the favorite target for Rodgers. Nelson is a lock to finish in the top 10 WRs.
After suffering a nasty leg injury in 2013, Cobb bounced back in a big way in 2014, finishing with triple digit targets and 91 receptions. The thing that really took his fantasy value to the next level was the fact that he was finding the end zone. In 16 games last season he found the end zone 12 times, whereas in his previous 36 games, he only found the end zone 13 times. While I'm not so sure you can expect those TD totals to remain that high, you can certainly expect the receptions to remain around the same. He gets great separation at the line and is one of the better slot WRs in the game. His value is boosted in PPR, but he's a top 20 guy in PPR or standard.
Bust: None
I see no reason why the Packer offense won't continue to click, allowing the Studs mentioned above to perform at, or exceed their draft position.
Sleeper: Defense/Special Teams
Lost in the offensive bonanza that the Pack put on every week is this defensive unit, led by Clay Matthews. Despite three negative fantasy point performances last year, they still finished as the eighth overall D/ST. This unit certainly isn't a Seattle or St. Louis where you can roll them out against anyone, but they can capitalize on soft matchups. Not only do they play in a division with two wildly erratic QBs (Cutler, Stafford), but their schedule this season also features the Chiefs, Niners, Rams, Raiders, and Cardinals. Things are setting up nicely for this unit.
Bottom Line
The Pack are the best team in the North, and one of the best teams in the NFL. This offense will continue to spew points, while the defense quietly does their job. Picking any player associated with this offense is a pretty good idea.
Minnesota Vikings
Studs: Adrian Peterson
Even after a year away from football, AP should still be considered one of the top five RBs in the league. Unlike a player that misses time due to injury, AP was able to devote his time to simply working out to get leaner and stronger (if that's even possible). Also keep in mind that AP went through training camp last season and even played Week 1, so it's not like Mike Zimmer's system will be a foreign concept to him. Sure, he'll have to learn some new wrinkles, but I don't see him having a problem with that. He will have to get used to QB Teddy Bridgewater as they have yet to play a game together, but considering AP ran for over 2,000 yards with Christian Ponder under center, I wouldn't be too worried. I see AP coming back with a vengeance and finishing as a top five RB.
Bust: None
AP is the only one who could even have the Bust tag, but I just don't see him faltering.
Sleeper: Mike Wallace, WR
Minnesota actually has a lot of sleepers this year (Charles Johnson, Teddy Bridgewater, D/ST), but I think Wallace will be the one that makes the biggest impact. Since leaving Pittsburgh, Wallace's fantasy hype has taken a dive, but he still continues to put up respectable numbers. Ryan Tannehill threw a ridiculous amount of balls in Wallace's direction the past two seasons, though the success rate was lacking (67 receptions on 115 targets in 2014). His 2014 season was helped out by his double digit TDs, despite inconsistent play from his QB. Landing in Minnesota should help Wallace's numbers as offensive coordinator Norv Turner has a history of turning number one WRs into stars, and Bridgewater throws a better deep ball than Tannehill, which just so happens to be Wallace's specialty. The TDs might go down, simply because the Vikes would prefer to run with AP in the red zone, but I expect the yards and receptions to spike.
Bottom Line
Building for the future, this Vikings team is very close to breaking through. 2015 likely won't be the year they dethrone the Packers in the North, but I think they contend for a playoff spot this season. AP's return should help Bridgewater and the passing game, and expect their young, tough defense to become one of the more feared in the league.
Matty O
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