Denver Broncos
Studs: Peyton Manning, QB, CJ Anderson, RB, Demaryius Thomas, WR, Emmanuel Sanders, WR
Yeah, yeah, we all know that Manning floundered down the stretch last year, but he enters 2015 completely healthy and still finished fourth in QB fantasy scoring last year, despite his late struggles. While Julius Thomas and Wes Welker might be out of the picture, new TE Owen Daniels has proved a capable pass catcher throughout his career, and second year WR Cody Latimer has all the tools needed to contribute as a NFL player. There is talk that the Broncos will emphasize the run more and scale back the pass, but I think that could help Manning in the long run and enable him to put up great fantasy numbers from start to finish. His poor finish last year has caused his draft position to plummet to around the 3rd/4th round, which is excellent value for the numbers that he can, and most likely will, put up this year.
For the second year in a row, an unexpected Bronco RB became an elite RB option. In 2013, Knowshon Moreno went from being a draft bust to having a ridiculously productive year. He cashed in that season for a contract with the Miami Dolphins in 2014, leaving the backfield open once again. Then, due to injury and overall poor play, starter Montee Ball soon found his starting RB job taken away by second year man CJ Anderson. Anderson went on an absolute tear from Weeks 10-17, tallying five 20+ point performances and adding an extra dimension to this offense. Anderson is hoping that 2015 will be the year that stops the trend of backups becoming stars in Denver. As I mentioned above, new head coach Gary Kubiak plans on using the running game more, and Anderson looks like the guy that will get most of the carries. With Manning calling the audibles to put players in the best position possible, I expect Anderson to be an elite RB1 this year, and one of the safer first round picks.
Thomas is a target machine and is basically locked in as a top five WR as long as Manning is still around. Thomas had the most targets last season, the second most receptions, and second most yards of any WR. While the Broncos might try to run it more often down in the red zone, there will also be red zone targets that open up now that Julius Thomas is in Jacksonville. Thomas is big, physical, and fast, and will continue to be Manning's number one option. He should be taken within the first ten picks in all leagues, and within the first eight in PPR leagues.
While I technically had Cody Latimer as my Bronco sleeper last year, I also viewed Sanders as quite a bargain as well. Coming over from Pittsburgh, Sanders had always been overshadowed by Mike Wallace and/or Antonio Brown, and never got the credit he deserved. While I didn't know much about him coming over from Pittsburgh, I knew that he was quick and had an excellent opportunity with the Broncos once it was confirmed that he would be playing opposite Thomas as Denver's WR2. He made me, and everyone that took a chance on him, look good, as he was fantasy football's sixth best WR and finished with only ten fewer receptions than Thomas. With Wes Welker gone, there have been rumblings of moving him to the slot and leaving Latimer on the outside. I actually think this fits Sanders better as Latimer has the bigger, stronger body size. While this might cause Sanders to regress from his 1404 yards, I think his high number of receptions remain, making him a threat to be a top 10 PPR WR once again.
Bust: None
I think every player listed above is ranked reasonably and will perform at or exceed their draft position.
Sleeper: Cody Latimer, WR
Back to back years for Latimer to be featured in my Sleeper section, so hopefully it pays off this time. Latimer, a second year WR out of Indiana, fits the outside receiver look much better than teammate Emmanuel Sanders, as Latimer is three inches taller and 35 pounds heavier than Sanders. His value is lessened in PPR leagues, as I'm not sure he gets peppered with targets each game, but he can certainly be a red zone presence and a down the field option, particularly if defenses are rolling extra coverage Thomas' way. His role in this offense is yet to be confirmed, but I have no doubt that he will be involved in some way and will start creeping up draft boards by the start of the season. While I don't see him putting up numbers any higher than a FLEX/WR3, he likely won't cost you that much on draft day anyways. Why not take a big body on Denver's offense with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball?
Bottom Line
Once again, this Denver team is loaded for fantasy football. The passing attack, even dumbed down, will still be more potent than half of the other teams in the league. CJ Anderson looks like the go-to guy in the backfield, and Kubiak follower Owen Daniels might not match Julius Thomas' prolific numbers, but Owens will also cost much less on draft day. Depending on how fast rookie Shane Ray develops, this D/ST could also become elite with Ray, DeMarcus Ware, and Von Miller all coming off the edge.
Kansas City Chiefs
Studs: Jamaal Charles, RB
Charles was the lone bright spot for the Chiefs last year, and virtually the only source of Kansas City's TDs. Charles topped 1000 yards and scored 14 total TDs, despite missing the Miami game and being on a team that had zero passing game threats. Despite a drop off in number of carries, Charles is still one of the biggest home run threats in the NFL and can break off a run or quick screen for six anytime he wants. While I think he may cede even more touches to the likes of Knile Davis and D'Anthony Thomas, I still think he finishes with RB1 numbers.
Bust: Jeremy Maclin, WR
Zero. That's how many TDs Chief WRs scored last season. While I think that absurd stat changes this season, I still don't think Maclin warrants a 7th round pick, which is where he is currently projected. I actually think Maclin is a good player, but the situation that he now finds himself in is quite depressing. The Chiefs will likely continue to rely on their run game, defense, and Alex Smith not turning the ball over, in order to win games. I actually like TE Travis Kelce as an option in the passing game better than I do Maclin. Maclin will register at least a TD, but I don't think he will even be a FLEX play by the end of the year. I would much rather have someone like Allen Robinson or Breshad Perriman, who are going after Maclin.
Sleeper: Defense/Special Teams
Things fell apart for this defense last year as they lost star linebacker Derrick Johnson to a torn Achilles and star safety Eric Berry to Hodgkin's Lymphoma. Johnson is back, Berry has been cleared to practice, and they return to a unit that still has Justin Houston, who led the league in sacks last season. Despite bad overall fantasy numbers last season, they actually never had a negative fantasy point game, and never allowed more than 29 points in any game last season. The thing that brought down their fantasy score was a severe lack of turnovers (13). If they can bump that number up, even if they are only middle of the pack, they should return as a top 10 unit in 2015.
Bottom Line
Apart from Charles, this team was offensively challenged last season and I don't see much changing this season. TE Travis Kelce should be viewed as a potential breakout candidate because he is now the undisputed starter, but I still wouldn't put him over Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, or Rob Gronkowski. This is also a scenario where handcuffing is extremely important as Charles has an injury history, and Knile Davis has proved more than capable of producing when given the chance.
Oakland Raiders
Studs: None
Some might argue that Latavius Murray deserves to belong in here, but keep in mind that pretty much all his damage came in Week 12 against Kansas City...on four runs. After missing Week 13 due to a concussion, he languished through Weeks 14-17 averaging 3.2 yards per carry. While his appalling backups (Roy Helu, Trent Richardson) basically guarantee him plenty of playing time, I'm not sure he does anything of value with it.
Bust: Murray, RB
See Above. He's also going in the 4th/5th round, ahead of guys like Rashad Jennings and Joseph Randle.
Sleeper: Amari Cooper, WR
Even with all the hype he has gotten, I still think he'll outperform his draft position. Cooper, a rookie WR out of Alabama, was said to be the most pro-ready prospect in this crop of rookie WRs and I'm certainly a believer. Despite playing with mediocre QB talent at Alabama, Cooper excelled in college, particularly in 2014 when he had 124 receptions, 1,727 receiving yards, and 16 receiving TDs. With James Jones now in New York, Cooper is immediately the number one WR in this offense and should have confidence after seeing the likes of Odell Beckham Jr and Kelvin Benjamin put up great rookie numbers. Derek Carr still has a ways to go as a QB, but did finish with over 3,000 yards and 21 passing TDs. Cooper should see plenty of targets and will be, at worst, a WR2, and possibly creep into the WR1 tier, particularly in PPR leagues.
Bottom Line
I think the Raiders are steadily improving on both sides of the ball, but I don't think you see that improvement in their record this season. They'll still be cellar dwellers, but I think the Carr to Cooper combo could make a lot of fantasy owners very happy this season. The Raiders will have to play catch up more often than not this season, and garbage time points still count as fantasy points.
San Diego Chargers
Studs: Phillip Rivers, QB, Keenan Allen, WR
Rivers finished as a top 12 QB last season, despite struggles down the stretch and an out-of-nowhere -3 performance against Miami in Week 9. Although Antonio Gates starts the season suspended, the Chargers signed Orlando Franklin to beef up the offensive line, signed WR Stevie Johnson to help in the passing game, and drafted RB Melvin Gordon to keep the defense off balance. Rivers is a risk taker and will throw his fair share of interceptions, but he still has a big time arm and is one of the better play callers at the line of scrimmage. His days of being a top five QB are over, but it's not out of the question for him to finish top 10/12.
I only feel confident calling Allen a stud in PPR leagues. Allen saw a significant drop off in yards and TDs last year compared to his rookie season, when he set the fantasy world on fire as Rivers' go-to WR. Despite a down 2014, he still commanded 121 targets, despite missing the final two games of the season. I think the targets continue to stay in the triple digits and his receptions see an uptick. His calling card is creating separation at the line of scrimmage, and he will need to be more successful at that this season. Again, standard league owners should downgrade Allen because the yards and TDs might not be there, but I expect a comeback year in PPR leagues.
Bust: Melvin Gordon, RB
Admittedly, I'm growing warmer to Gordon as we near the season as he is certainly San Diego's between the tackles and goal line runner, but there are some concerns that I have. First off, I doubt he'll play on any passing downs in 2015 as Danny Woodhead and, to a lesser extent Branden Oliver, are more suited for catching balls out of the backfield (Gordon had 22 receptions in 45 games at Wisconsin). Second, according to Pro Football Focus, who grades offensive lines on a yearly basis, the Chargers finished 29th out of 32 teams. The addition of Franklin will be a boost, but they are still a long way from being elite. Lastly, Gordon is a Wisconsin RB, which has not translated well to the NFL. Since 2004, five Badgers eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing in their final season at Wisconsin (Brian Calhoun, PJ Hill, John Clay, James White, Montee Ball), yet all of them have found little to no success in the NFL. My theory is that all of them played behind massive Wisconsin offensive lines and were force fed the football. While Gordon did best all of them by running for over 2,000 yards last year, he now goes to a low ranked offensive line and will only be playing on first and second down. Again, the opportunity is there, but let's not pretend like he is a sure thing to excel.
Sleeper: Stevie Johnson, WR
While I think that Allen leads the Chargers in receptions this season, it's very possible that Johnson leads the team in yards. Johnson was completely forgotten last season, as he was part of the dumpster fire that was the 49er offense. In Buffalo, however, he was very productive in real life and fantasy football. He had three straight 1,000 yard seasons from 2010-12 with no-name QBs throwing him the football. I think that the move to San Diego re-energizes his still young career (he's only 28 years old), as he will be no worse than the third WR on this team, though I think he eventually passes Malcom Floyd on the depth chart. With Antonio Gates suspended to start the season, it will give Johnson a chance to develop a rapport with Rivers and hopefully become a reliable option for him. If he can play anywhere as close to how he played in Buffalo, he could be one of the best WR steals this season, as he will probably go in one of the last rounds of your draft or go completely undrafted.
Bottom Line
From a fantasy perspective, there's a lot of opportunity and new faces on this Chargers team. Gates' suspension opens up the door for backup TE Ladarius Green to make a name for himself, after being hyped up the last couple of seasons. Ryan Mathews' exit to Philly opens up the door for Gordon, and Woodhead's return is something to keep an eye on if he can become a pass catching machine like he was in 2013. I also expect WRs Johnson and Allen to improve upon down years in 2014. The Chargers will knock on the door for a Wild Card spot, but I don't think they'll get it.
Matty O
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