St. Louis Rams
Studs: Defense/Special Teams
This unit was highly touted at the start of last season as well, but likely left owners frustrated by the middle of the year. In the Rams' first seven games, this unit gave up 30+ points five times and only registered eight turnovers. After Week 8, however, this unit racked up 17 turnovers, three TDs, and recorded back to back shutouts in Weeks 13 and 14. They finished as the ninth ranked fantasy unit at the end of 2014, and I expect them to improve upon that this year. Their defensive line is one of the best in the league, led by Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald, and should be able to get plenty of pressure on QBs this season. They do have the explosive Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers on their schedule this year, but I expect this unit to finish, at worst, in the top 10 fantasy D/ST, and likely finish as a top five unit.
Bust: Todd Gurley, RB
I don't understand all the hype that Gurley is getting. His career at Georgia was productive, there's no denying that, but he's coming off an ACL injury, is likely to miss training camp and/or preseason reps, and isn't guaranteed the starting RB job anyways. While I think Gurley could have a productive career long term, I think people are simply writing off Tre Mason, as though Mason did nothing last year. Mason proved to be the lone bright spot for the Rams last year once he wrestled the starting job away from Zac Stacy. Mason averaged 4.3 yards per carry and finished with five total TDs. He had two 100+ yard games, all while facing a gauntlet of tough run defenses (Seattle, Arizona, San Francisco, Washington, Denver). The Rams used three of their first five draft picks on offensive line, which should help to shore up a unit that was rather poor last season. Gurley is currently ranked, and being drafted, ahead of Mason, which I think is absurd. Mason is established in this offense and has proved that he can play in this league. I'd rather have him than an unproven, coming-off-an-ACL rookie.
Sleeper: Brian Quick, WR
Quick was having a reasonably productive year, by St. Louis Ram standards, until he went down with a season ending injury in Week 8 last year. He's healed up, and enters 2015 as the Rams' unquestioned number one WR. Even though the Rams are a run first team, number one WRs on any team is always an attractive fantasy asset, purely because of the targets he will get. Quick also gets to catch footballs from Nick Foles this season, which is certainly an upgrade from Austin Davis. Playing in the NFC West and having to face Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman twice a year certainly is a bit of a hindrance, but I think Quick could be a nice bye week fill in or even a FLEX play in PPR leagues. You'll be able to get Quick late, or even off of waivers if he goes undrafted, so there's hardly any risk in taking a chance on him.
Bottom Line
As has been the case in recent years, there's not too much to get excited about from a fantasy perspective with the Rams. They'll likely rely on ball control and their solid defense to win games, and will try to avoid high scoring shootouts. Nick Foles should be considered an upgrade at QB, though expectations should be tempered, as Foles' numbers will likely see a dip now that he is away from Philly's up-tempo system. Keep an eye on the RB situation as we get closer to the start of the season. If Gurley suffers a setback or re-injures his ACL, Mason would get a boost in value.
Seattle Seahawks
Studs: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Russell Wilson, QB, Jimmy Graham, TE, D/ST
Lynch continues to prove the doubters, myself included, wrong, as he keeps racking up the carries, taking the hits, but producing on this team. Lynch finished as the third best fantasy RB last year, putting up 1306 rushing yards and 17 total TDs. He was the workhorse for this entire offense week in and week out as he received 20+ carries eight times last year. There doesn't seem to be any plans to cut back on his carries, so he should be productive once again, so long as his body can hold up to the volume of punishment it takes each year. While it is true that newly acquired tight end Jimmy Graham might take some of his short yardage TDs, I still think Lynch will see enough volume to make him a top 10 RB once again.
Wilson is my dark horse pick for overall fantasy MVP this season. He finished third among QBs in fantasy scoring last year, mostly due to his QB-leading 849 rushing yards (210 more rushing yards than second place rushing QB Colin Kaepernick). His 20 passing TDs won't blow anyone away, but he was careful with the football and only threw seven interceptions. Andrew Luck had seven interceptions by Week 7 last year. The addition of a huge target like Graham should help him improve on his passing yardage and TD totals from previous years. The only negative with Wilson is that he can be wildly inconsistent at times. Twice last year, he had 10 point performances sandwiched in between 28+ performances. I think the addition of Graham and another year of experience (he's still only in his 4th year in the league) will make Wilson a top three QB, and possible overall point leader by the end of the season.
While being traded from New Orleans to Seattle does take Graham out of a passing friendly offense, it does not change the fact that he is a 6'7", 265 pound matchup nightmare. He can box defenders out and turn a poorly thrown ball into a TD grab. While his yardage and targets might see a slight drop, I expect his double digit TDs to remain, even in Seattle. He'll be Wilson's favorite target in the red zone, and should be helped out with defenses having to worry about Lynch as well. Barring the Seahawks completely ignoring Graham in the red zone, I expect another top three TE season from Graham.
The Seahawks' D/ST is probably the safest D/ST unit you can take, and will likely be the first one taken in most drafts. This unit actually struggled to start 2014, including an unfathomable -1 performance in San Diego in Week 2, but turned it around halfway through the season. From Week 8 to the end of the season, they only had two single digit fantasy point games, and completely shut down offenses. They also play in a division that is lacking offensive firepower. Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, and Bobby Wagner all return, while Kam Chancellor is in the midst of a holdout. Once Chancellor settles and returns to the field, the Legion of Boom and this D/ST unit should terrorize opposing teams and fantasy owners once again in 2015.
Bust: None
I expect all four of the studs listed above to either match or outperform their draft position.
Sleeper: Tyler Lockett, WR
Lockett, a rookie out of Kansas State, is similar to guys like Brandin Cooks and Percy Harvin in that he is quicker than he is fast, and can get early separation off the line of scrimmage, despite his diminutive size (5'11", 182 lbs.). I would advise Lockett only for those of you in PPR leagues, as he likely won't stretch the field or put up big yardage totals, but can be a nice target for Wilson on quick hitting passes in hopes that Lockett can rack up big yards after the catch. He was Kansas State's most explosive weapon last year, including being utilized as a punt and kick returner. While the run oriented Seahawk offense will likely pull down his numbers, I expect Lockett to make a name for himself this year. Keep an eye on Lockett to see how far he climbs in the depth chart by the end of training camp.
Bottom Line
This team was one bad decision away from winning another Super Bowl title, and their 2015 squad is looking stacked once again. While the defense gets a lot of attention, and deservedly so, I think that Seattle's offense will be one to fear this season. Acquiring Jimmy Graham gives this team the aerial threat that they have been trying to find since drafting Russell Wilson, while teams still have to worry about Lynch running it down their throats. Expect this Seahawk team to be one of the best in the NFL, and a good source of fantasy points on both sides of the ball.
Arizona Cardinals
Studs: None
Any success that the Cardinals hope to have on offense revolves around the health of Carson Palmer. When Palmer was healthy last year, this offense was actually fairly explosive, but turned absolutely dreadful once Palmer went down. Michael Floyd might be considered a stud if Palmer's health was guaranteed.
Bust: Andre Ellington, RB
Ellington was actually my sleeper last year because it wouldn't cost you that much and I knew he would put up great PPR numbers. He was the Cardinals' lead back and hauled in 46 passes in 12 games before breaking down and succumbing to injuries to end the year. Unlike last year, Ellington will cost you about a fourth or fifth round pick, which is too high for this kind of player. He is undersized and likely won't get a lot, if any, goal line looks down in the red zone. In 12 games last year, he failed to top the 100 yard mark despite receiving 15+ carries nine times. That's partly his fault, but also the fault of their awful offensive line. They spent their first round pick on offensive tackle DJ Humphries, but it will take more than that to make this line effective. Guys like CJ Spiller and Shane Vereen are going later than Ellington, despite playing the same pass catching role and putting up similar numbers. The receptions could be there, but there won't be much else.
Sleeper: Carson Palmer, QB
As I mentioned above, this offense can thrive if Palmer stays healthy. Palmer only played in five complete games last season, but he went over 300 yards twice and had at least two TDs in every complete game he played. Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are still a good WR duo on the outside, and Ellington has proven to be a capable pass catcher. They even got Palmer's old teammate from Cincinnati, Jermaine Gresham, to come be their tight end. Head coach Bruce Arians has always had a downfield offense, and Palmer has never been one to shy away from launching the ball deep. The pieces are there for Palmer to be successful as long as he can stay on the field. I would certainly have another QB on my roster if Palmer were to go down, but he is a legitimate fantasy starter while healthy. If you take a suspended Tom Brady, having Palmer healthy at the start of the season would be a great QB while Brady serves his suspension.
Bottom Line
The Cardinals have been looking for a consistent answer at QB since Kurt Warner left, and Palmer is the closest thing they have. The skill position players can be successful if he is at QB, but will wind up on a lot of waiver wires if he were to go down. Their defense had its moments last year, but also turned in four performances of zero points or less. While the Cards' D/ST should be viewed as a good matchup play, just keep in mind that they have to face the Vikings, Eagles, and Packers in Weeks 14, 15, and 16, respectively. I doubt many fantasy football playoff teams will be starting this D/ST in the playoffs this season.
San Francisco 49ers
Studs: Anquan Boldin
Boldin, one of the few 49ers that actually returns to the team this season, continues to simply be a steady source of yards and receptions. Despite a down year from QB Colin Kaepernick and the offense as a whole, Boldin still managed to go over 1,000 yards and finished as the 22nd ranked WR for fantasy. PPR owners should also be excited about Boldin as he finished with the 15th most receptions among WRs, ahead of flashier guys like TY Hilton and Kelvin Benjamin. Boldin won't look like a sexy pick up on draft day, but his numbers will speak for themselves by the end of the year. Expect another WR2/FLEX season from Boldin.
Bust: Carlos Hyde, RB
It's hard to call anyone on this team a bust because everyone did so terrible last season, but I'll go with Hyde because he is getting a lot of hype with Frank Gore now in Indianapolis. The offensive line, once a strength of this team, lost Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis this offseason. Hyde has very little game experience, and was less than impressive with his touches last season. He'll start the year as the default number one RB, but spending a third round pick on him is ridiculous. No one knows what this offense will look like under new head coach Jim Tomsula, and I'm not convinced that the Niners don't go with a committee at RB with Hyde and rookie Mike Davis. The opportunity is obviously there for Hyde, but the price is way too steep for an unproven back with an unproven coach on a team with question marks all over the field.
Sleeper: Colin Kaepernick, QB
After back to back years in 2012-13 of being a fantasy darling, Kaepernick took a step back in 2014. He finished with two less passing TDs than in 2013, two more interceptions than in 2013, and three less rushing TDs than in 2013. The good news is that even in the midst of a terrible season, not everything was bad. Kaepernick still managed to set career highs in passing yards and rushing yards, while playing in all 16 games. While I don't think he becomes a top five QB, I think that it is not out of the question for him to regain top 12 or even 10 status. The Niners picked up WR Torrey Smith and RB Reggie Bush in the offseason to help in the passing game, while Boldin and TE Vernon Davis return to the Niners. Kaepernick's speed is still there and his passing has slowly, but surely improved throughout his career. He's currently ranked in the 15-18 area, and I have no doubt that he will outperform that ranking easily. You'll be able to draft him as a backup, and he might turn into your starter.
Bottom Line
Who knows? This team had so much movement in the offseason, I'm not sure if anyone knows how to judge this team from a real life or fantasy perspective. I wouldn't be shocked if they made the playoffs, and I wouldn't be shocked if they finished in last place. Boldin is the only Niner that I would feel safe about having, though I think Kaepernick and Reggie Bush (in PPR leagues) could provide some value during the season.
Matty O
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