August has begun, training camps are open, and it's time to start talking fantasy football. No matter what game you play, whether it's fantasy football, chess, or poker, it's always a good idea to have a good strategy in mind before the game begins. Since your fantasy draft marks the start of your fantasy football season, as well as providing the building blocks for a successful team, it is important to know what you're doing and how to execute your draft strategy. Like in any game, adjustments may need to be made on the fly, like if someone takes a player you really needed/wanted, but a general outline of how to attack is always good to have. Below, I will cover some general things to keep in mind as you approach your draft, as well as a position by position breakdown of how I go about drafting certain players.
Know Your League Rules
Is your league a standard one? A points per reception (PPR) league? Do you have to draft individual defensive players? Do you have to select two QBs? Depending on what your league type is, will effect how you draft and the importance placed on certain players. Running backs like Matt Forte, Le'Veon Bell, and Shane Vereen all get a boost in PPR leagues because of their inflated reception numbers (102, 83, and 52 receptions, respectively). Two QB leagues place a premium on QBs since there are only 32 starters in any given week, and less than half of those QBs that turn out to be fantasy threats. Be aware of the players that have increased value because of your league rules, and which big names can be passed over because they do not offer the statistical numbers that other, lesser known players do.
Same Team Stacking
Normally, if I have a team's starting QB, I won't have the team's starting RB. A QB and WR combo is less risky, but can still burn you. You can only score so many points in an NFL game, so when you stack players that are on the same team, you sometimes take production away from one of your own players. For instance, if you stack your team with Packers and wind up with Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and Eddie Lacy, every time Lacy scores a rushing TD, that is a scoring opportunity that your own player just took away from Rodgers and Nelson. Conversely, if Rodgers hooks up with Randall Cobb for a passing TD, then that is potential points taken away from Nelson and Lacy. I'm not saying I'm completely against it, but there is certainly risk involved. If that team happens to have a bad week, or is playing in 30 mph winds, then all of your positions with players from that team will under perform that week. Of course, if they do well collectively, then you could be set at all those positions as well. With that in mind, there are only a handful of teams that I would recommend stacking QB, RB, WR, and/or TE. Teams like the Packers, Steelers, and Broncos are probably the safest ones to stack with as they all have established QBs and playmakers at multiple positions.
Bye Week Stacking
Bye week stacking is essentially drafting your starters so that all of them have the same bye week. You're basically forfeiting that bye week, but also setting yourself up so that you are at full strength for the rest of the bye weeks. I've seen mixed results with this strategy, but I personally advise against it. By the time we get to the bye week part of the year, there are sure to be injuries, poor performances, and defenses that come out of nowhere that present tough matchups for your players. There's also no guarantee that your opponent won't be at full strength when you face him/her. Sure, they might have Andrew Luck on a bye, but if they can get Eli Manning off waivers who is facing the Cowboys, is there really going to be any drop off? Sometimes those bye weeks can sting you, but normally you can either find a decent replacement, or find a favorable matchup to exploit.
Handcuff
Handcuffing in fantasy football refers to backing up your starter in case he gets injured/suspended. While it takes up a roster spot, and you might go a whole year without using him, the risk of not having him and therefore not having a viable replacement for your starter, is too great. One thing to keep in mind, however, is that not every player with an injury history needs to be handcuffed. You still have to expect your handcuff to perform if the starter goes down, otherwise it is pointless to use up a roster spot. For instance, it would make sense to handcuff a Cowboy or Raven RB because their offensive lines are rock solid and the handcuff would likely experience some sort of success. On the other hand, handcuffing a Raider or Falcon RB might not be the best idea because their lines are weaker and less likely to produce open lanes for that player. Research some of the top players and their injury history (I'll include some in my division by division breakdowns) and know which ones need to be covered and handcuffed.
Draft Date
Obviously getting 10 or 12 people to have all their schedules matched up to have a draft is a difficult thing, but I like having drafts as close to the start of the season as possible. I feel like leagues and teams can get ruined a bit if you have a draft in early/mid-August, only to have a team's starting RB1 get injured in a meaningless preseason game. There are things the commissioner can do to make this easier, like giving the owner first dibs on the injured player's backup, but it is easier if all teams head into a draft knowing what that player's situation is. Sometimes position battles and suspension rulings also go right down to the wire, and it is nice as an owner in a league to have the clearest picture for every player heading into your draft. Again, definitely not easy to accomplish, particularly with Labor Day Weekend right before the start of the NFL season, but just something for commissioners to keep in mind.
Position By Position Strategy
Quarterback
QB seems to be the most clear position for fantasy this year. Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck have clearly distinguished themselves as the two best fantasy options, with guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson in the next tier. Barring an injunction, even the Tom Brady situation is clear, as we know he'll miss the first four games of the Patriots' season and will, without a doubt, retake his starting job in Week 6, regardless of how well Jimmy Garoppolo does. There are some lower ranked guys that I think could emerge (Carson Palmer, Teddy Bridgewater), but I feel like everyone is ranked fairly reasonably for QBs.
With that in mind, I would suggest either snagging Luck or Rodgers early, or waiting it out to draft a QB. Most leagues only require one QB to start, and most leagues have 12 or less owners. There are at least that many decent QBs in the NFL, and once you get past the Brees and Manning tier, you're basically splitting hairs about who to take because the difference between each player is so small. You could also choose to draft two mediocre QBs and simply plug and play them into matchups that favor that QB. The intriguing question in all leagues at the QB position will be how far Brady will fall if the four game suspension holds up. Despite a rough start to the year, including three single digit fantasy performances in his first four games, Brady managed to finish eighth in fantasy scoring at the end of the year. I don't think it is out of the question to snag Brady, and draft an Andy Dalton or Carson Palmer type-QB late, to hold down the fort while Brady is suspended.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 QBs That Will Finish Top 10: Eli Manning, Carson Palmer
Running Back
Year after year, RB becomes harder to predict from a fantasy perspective. This year, it is absolutely ludicrous. You have backs that are suspended (Le'Veon Bell, LeGarrette Blount), backs that are coming back from injury/suspension (Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson), backs that switched to new teams (DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore), backs that have opportunity because of those switches (Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden, Carlos Hyde), and rookie backs getting a lot of hype (Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon). Hopefully things become clearer by the time training camps end, but it looks like drafting solid RBs will once again be a shot in the dark.
If you have a pick at the top of the first round, it is expected and recommended that you take a RB. While there are certainly a lot of questions throughout the draft with RBs, there are guys like Jamaal Charles and Eddie Lacy that I would consider "safe." Also, for those of you in PPR leagues, keep in mind that valuable RB2s and FLEX RBs can be found later in drafts because guys like Shane Vereen and Darren Sproles don't put up solid rushing yard numbers, but catch plenty of balls to rack up points for their receptions. I would say that once you get your starters established (not counting DEF and K), I would start to stockpile RBs. Even if they aren't the starter or their situation looks sort of bleak, you might as well take a chance on them, as players like Justin Forsett and CJ Anderson have come out of nowhere to take advantage of opportunities presented to them throughout the season. You're really just looking for a lottery ticket at that point, so you might as well draft as many as you can. Don't forget to handcuff!
Player(s) Outside Top 20 RBs That Will Finish Top 20: Tre Mason, TJ Yeldon, Ameer Abdullah, Joseph Randle
Wide Receiver
The top of this WR fantasy class should have owners salivating. Antonio Brown, you could argue, could go number one in PPR leagues. Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant got paid and are on elite offenses. Julio Jones is in a contract year, as is Alshon Jeffery, who no longer has to compete with Brandon Marshall for catches. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb get to play with Aaron Rodgers, and not even Eli Manning could mess up a monster second half of last year for Odell Beckham Jr. AJ Green, Brandin Cooks, and Calvin Johnson are looking to bounce back from injury plagued 2014s. Sophomore WRs Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, and Jordan Matthews are looking to improve on their rookie years, while Amari Cooper, Kevin White, and Breshad Perriman are looking to make impacts in theirs.
For PPR leagues, or leagues that require three WRs instead of two WRs and a FLEX, it is important to get elite WRs. While the points that WRs put up may be more volatile from week to week, they are also more likely to reach the 30 and 40 point marks. Having a guy like Antonio Brown who consistently gets double digit targets week in and week out, gives you a substantial advantage over the other owners in your league. Just like with RBs, also keep in mind that there are WRs that specialize in racking up receptions, but not having huge yardage totals. Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry are two guys that finished under 1,000 yards, but had 92 and 84 receptions, respectively. Most sites rank based on standard leagues, so keep that in mind if you draft on ESPN.com or NFL.com. You might have to dig deep to find the reception machines that you want.
WR is usually the easiest position to find quality players late in drafts. While some teams are moving more towards a two back committee at RB, most teams have at least two, if not three, attractive WR options. This gives owners a large pool to choose from if you miss out on the elite crop of WR talent. It has become even easier to find talent late in recent years, as WRs seem to be more NFL ready and are getting more opportunities as rookies. Rookies can usually be snagged later in drafts because they come with the "unproven" tag, but none of them will lack the "talent" tag.
Player(s) Outside Top 30 WRs That Will Finish Top 30: Allen Robinson, Marques Colston, Breshad Perriman
Tight End
Tight end, like QB, has fairly clear tiers of where different players belong. Unlike QB, however, which has multiple tiers, TE has the elite guys, then everyone else. Normally, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are the only two in the top tier, but I'll include Greg Olsen this year as well. Olsen, one of my better Sleeper calls last year, had a monster 2014 as he finished with the third most receptions among TEs, the fourth most targets among TEs, and was one of only two TEs (Gronk being the other), that eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards. With Antonio Gates being suspended to start the year, that leaves everyone else after Olsen in a mix of either unproven players, or those with up-in-the-air circumstances. For example, Julius Thomas was a scoring machine while he was with the Broncos and Peyton Manning, but now must transition to a far less explosive offense with the Jags and Blake Bortles. My advice stays the same as it has been for this position; either snag one of the top three or wait to get your TE. The top three or four TEs usually separate themselves from the pack, while the rest don't have a significant difference between their overall numbers over a 16 game season. There was also a lot of TE movement this offseason, so I expect some lower drafted or undrafted guys to prove very valuable to fantasy teams this year.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 TEs That Will Finish Top 10: Owen Daniels, Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, Maxx Williams
Defense/Special Teams
D/ST is, by far, the hardest position to predict on a year to year basis. Matchups, lucky bounces, and total D/ST TDs are the most significant factors in a D/ST unit's score. D/ST also, in my opinion, has the biggest gap between fantasy and real life quality. For example, the Philadelphia Eagles finished second in D/ST scoring last season, trailing only the Buffalo Bills. Their fantasy score, however, was inflated due to their impossible-to-repeat 11 TDs. In real life, however, they finished 28th in total yards allowed and 22nd in points per game allowed. This is what makes D/ST so hard to predict because if you have a ball-hawking and TD scoring defense, they can still give up a lot of yards and points, but be valuable in fantasy. With that in mind, I prefer waiting on defense simply because it is so hard to predict. More often than not, a defense viewed as sub-par will end up emerging (see: Buffalo Bills last year). If I had to list a top tier of defenses, I would say that it would include Seattle, Houston, St. Louis, Buffalo, and the New York Jets.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 D/STs That Will Finish Top 10: Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers
Kicker
Normally, I would just say to get one in the last round and be done with it, but I would change that up this year due to the new extra point rule and possibly draft my kicker sooner than the last round. The new rule pushes extra points back to the 15 yard line, while two point conversions stay at the two yard line. I would encourage earlier drafting of kickers, not because of horrible extra point misses (the change in yardage isn't too terrible for most NFL kickers), but rather because of the decreased opportunities. I think there will be certain teams, particularly if their kicker struggles early in the year, that will just decide to go for two from the two yard line most of the time. I think the Eagles will be one of those teams as Chip Kelly has loved going for two, going all the way back to his Oregon days (interesting to note that the Eagles' proposal for this rule change had extra points from the 15 yard line, but two point conversions from the one). While the Eagles are an explosive offense, their kicker might not get a lot of opportunities in any given game, because they just keep going for two.
Also, even though I mentioned that the change in yardage isn't that big of a deal for NFL kickers, it will be if there is bad weather, particularly high winds. Therefore, grabbing a kicker that plays his home games indoors will be of the utmost importance. As we get closer to the fantasy playoffs, it will be even more important to see where your kicker will be playing in Weeks 14, 15, and 16. Chicago and Green Bay are not places that you want to see. Keep in mind that the AFC South has two teams that play indoors while the other two are in Tennessee and Jacksonville, and the NFC South also has two teams that play indoors while the other two play in Carolina and Tampa Bay.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 Ks That Will Finish Top 10: Randy Bullock, Blair Walsh, Greg Zuerlein
Division by division breakdowns coming in the following weeks!
Matty O
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